This quip by Bill Simmons concisely explains my stance.
And even after the Spus dump Richard Jefferson, they’re still at $66.2 million for 14 guys next year. If there’s a hard cap, or even a semi-flaccid cap, they’re still screwed unless they can turn Tony Parker ($50 million through 2015) into a significantly cheaper point guard (like Ricky Rubio or Kyle Lowry). I think it’s fascinating that (a) Spurs owner Peter Holt has the most juice of any owner in this lockout, (b) the owners are pushing for a hard cap, and (c) no 2011-12 team would be more screwed over by a hard cap than the Spurs.
My read is that the owners will soon soften their demand for a hard cap. We’re nearing the end of the time where one side can “win” the negotiations. As soon as we enter the phase where both sides can only lose, a settlement will be inked.